Orange County’s commercial real estate market entered the second quarter of 2026 with a mixed but resilient posture.
Across retail, office, industrial, and multifamily sectors, the region is navigating a careful balance between sustained investor appetite and macroeconomic headwinds including tariff pressure, rising construction costs, and a cautious leasing environment.
This report covers the most significant sales, leasing activity, development milestones, and market data recorded through April 2026.
Retail Sector
Orange County’s retail market remains one of the tightest in the nation. The overall availability rate held at three point nine percent in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting essentially no new supply and continued strong tenant demand. Net absorption slowed to twenty-one thousand square feet for the quarter, down from one hundred sixty-six thousand square feet the prior quarter, as retailers found fewer available spaces to absorb.
The headline story in retail investment was a dramatic surge in sales volume. Total retail investment sales reached four hundred thirty-six point one million dollars in the first quarter of 2026, a jump of more than seventy-five percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, when sales totaled just one hundred three million dollars. Several transactions exceeding forty million dollars drove that number, including the sales of Pavilion Plaza, Seacliff Village, and Gateway Shopping Center.
The single largest catalyst was the one hundred seven million dollar sale of Westminster Mall. That transaction set the stage for what is now the most talked-about redevelopment project in Orange County. Average net asking rents for retail properties ticked up two cents per square foot per month to two dollars and fifty-six cents triple net in the first quarter of 2026, with the Central Coast submarket leading the gains.
Bolsa Pacific at Westminster: The Defining Project of April 2026
No single event shaped the April 2026 narrative more than the ceremonial groundbreaking of Bolsa Pacific at Westminster. Irvine-based Shopoff Realty Investments officially kicked off the transformation of the former Westminster Mall on April 16, 2026, with chief executive Bill Shopoff personally climbing into a seventy-thousand-pound excavator and tearing down the Westminster Mall signage. Behind it, a banner for Bolsa Pacific was revealed.
The project is valued at two point five billion dollars and sits on eighty-three point three acres — one of the largest redevelopment sites in Orange County history. Upon completion, Bolsa Pacific will deliver approximately two thousand two hundred fifty residential units, two hundred twenty thousand square feet of retail and restaurant space, a one hundred twenty-room hotel, and more than fifteen acres of publicly accessible open space. Demolition of the former mall is underway, with grading and infrastructure work expected later in 2026 and vertical construction targeted to begin in 2027.
Westminster city officials stated the project could bring eight thousand to ten thousand new residents to the city. It is also expected to help the city satisfy state housing requirements while creating what leaders are calling a new community hub anchored by walkable streets, a food hall, and green space. Architecture firm A O designed the project, which calls for contemporary podium-style buildings rising as high as eight stories at the center of the site.
Office Sector
The Orange County office market continued a gradual and uneven recovery in the first quarter of 2026. According to C B R E, the overall vacancy rate ticked up forty basis points quarter over quarter to fourteen point six percent, with net absorption coming in at negative three hundred twenty-one thousand four hundred ninety-seven square feet, driven by small and mid-sized tenants vacating space. Asking lease rates edged up one cent per square foot per month to two dollars and eighty-four cents full service gross.
However, alternative research from Kidder Mathews offers a more encouraging read on the market. Their data shows the direct vacancy rate fell to eleven point three percent in the first quarter of 2026, down three point eight percent year over year and below the national average, driven by stronger tenant move-ins and reduced relocations. Total leasing volume reached approximately one point six million square feet, led by suburban submarkets and high-quality, flight-to-quality properties.
Sublet availability also dropped to its lowest level in twenty-six quarters. According to Newmark, sublet space declined to two point three percent of total inventory, a meaningful signal that tenants who once shed excess space during the pandemic are no longer flooding the market with secondhand supply. Savills in Newport Beach reported a seventy percent workforce recovery rate in Irvine since 2020, with vice chairman Taylor Wood noting that “tenant demand is showing signs of stabilization as occupiers have gained confidence in their future business plans.”
Industrial Sector
The industrial sector told a nuanced story in April 2026. Lee and Associates reported that Orange County’s industrial market recorded positive net absorption for the second straight quarter in the first quarter of 2026, posting a gain of five hundred forty thousand one hundred sixty-one square feet. That result came after eleven consecutive quarters of declining demand totaling nearly nine point five million square feet, making it a genuine turning point for owners and investors.
Average sale prices rose to three hundred sixty-two dollars per square foot, up from three hundred fourteen dollars per square foot the prior quarter, with capitalization rates compressing to four point eight four percent. Asking rents softened modestly to eighteen dollars and twelve cents per square foot triple net, down from eighteen dollars and thirty-six cents in the fourth quarter of 2025. The vacancy rate rose slightly to six point three percent, still well below the national average of seven point five percent.
C B R E’s concurrent report showed a slightly different vacancy reading of five point three percent, with net absorption at negative three hundred eighty thousand seven hundred eighteen square feet, highlighting the degree to which data methodologies across firms can vary.
What both reports agree on is that construction activity has slowed sharply, with only eight hundred forty-five thousand to eight hundred forty thousand square feet remaining under construction at the end of the first quarter of 2026 — the lowest pipeline level since early 2020.
The biggest industrial lease signed in the period was executed at the end of April by Columbia Container Lines L A X Incorporated. The logistics company signed a sixty-eight-month lease for one hundred fifty-six thousand and ninety-six square feet at six hundred ninety-one to seven hundred one Burning Tree Road in Fullerton. The total lease value exceeded thirteen point six million dollars.
Columbia Container Lines is relocating from Gardena to consolidate operations into a single modern logistics hub, with the property owned by CIM Group and transaction representation provided by CBRE on the landlord side and The Klabin Company on the tenant side.
Tariff-related headwinds continue to shadow the industrial market. Voit Real Estate Services noted that rising tariffs have disrupted supply chains and caused some occupiers to defer space needs until inventory and logistics conditions stabilize. J P Morgan research noted that as of March 2026, aluminum, copper, and steel are all subject to a fifty percent tariff, directly inflating construction costs for new industrial and commercial facilities across Southern California.
Multifamily Sector
The multifamily sector held steady but softened in the first quarter of 2026. The Orange County multifamily market closed the quarter with a ninety-six point one percent occupancy rate, a ten-basis-point decline from the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by newly delivered vacant units. Net absorption totaled three hundred seventy-one units for the quarter, with West Irvine accounting for the majority of that demand at three hundred twenty-seven units.
Average rents held flat at two thousand eight hundred ninety-six dollars per unit per month, unchanged from the prior quarter. C B R E noted that landlords had minimal pricing power as renters grappled with elevated costs of living. Investment sales volume declined sharply to one hundred ninety-seven point eight million dollars in the first quarter of 2026, compared to four hundred fifty-two point three million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a drop in large-transaction activity.
The month’s biggest multifamily finance news came from J L L Capital Markets. On April 7, 2026, J L L announced it had arranged a one hundred forty-four million dollar construction loan for The Carina, a four hundred eight-unit multifamily development project in Santa Ana. The borrower, Affinius Capital, secured the three-year floating-rate loan through QuadReal. The Carina will be located at 2828 North Main Street, adjacent to MainPlace Mall, with direct freeway access to Interstate 5, State Route 55, and State Route 22.
Brokerage Firms and Market Activity
Orange County’s brokerage community closed 2025 on a strong note heading into the current year. The region’s top nineteen commercial real estate brokerages recorded a six point six percent increase in transaction value to forty billion dollars in 2025. The number of sales rose three point seven percent to three thousand three hundred one, while leasing volume held steady at nine thousand seven hundred twenty-two transactions.
C B R E’s Irvine office retained the number one ranking with seven point three billion dollars in transaction value, despite a fifteen percent decline from 2024. Savills in Newport Beach posted the most impressive year-over-year gain, growing transaction value by one hundred four percent to two point four billion dollars with four hundred thirty-six leases and eighteen sales recorded in 2025.
April also saw a new entrant to the Orange County brokerage landscape. PIR Commercial Realty launched its institutional brokerage in Laguna Niguel on April 3, 2026, founded by Anna Murphy and targeting institutional investors, private equity sponsors, owner groups, and joint venture partnerships across California’s major markets from Los Angeles and Orange County south to San Diego and north to San Francisco.
What the Data Suggests
The Orange County commercial real estate market in April 2026 is telling a story of selective strength and strategic repositioning. Several patterns emerge clearly from the data gathered this month.
Retail is the standout performer.
With availability at three point nine percent and investment sales surging seventy-five percent in a single quarter, Orange County retail is operating in a supply-constrained environment that continues to push rents higher and attract capital.
The one hundred seven million dollar Westminster Mall transaction and the subsequent Bolsa Pacific groundbreaking signal that major institutional capital is not waiting for perfect conditions — it is acting decisively to redeploy obsolete retail into mixed-use density.
Industrial is stabilizing, but the road is not smooth. Two straight quarters of positive absorption after nearly three years of declining demand is a meaningful signal. However, tariff-driven uncertainty is suppressing new leasing decisions and inflating construction costs, creating an environment where well-located, existing product like the Fullerton CIM Group building commands strong rents while speculative development remains largely on pause. Investors watching capitalization rates compress to four point eight four percent while sale prices rise to three hundred sixty-two dollars per square foot should take note — owner-users and core buyers are active.
The office sector is in early recovery, but the bifurcation is significant. Premium, well-located assets in submarkets like the John Wayne Airport corridor and Irvine are absorbing space and holding rents. Secondary office buildings continue to lose tenants and suffer declining values. The drop in sublet availability to a six-and-a-half-year low is one of the strongest positive signals the office market has produced since 2020, suggesting the supply overhang is slowly clearing.
Multifamily fundamentals remain healthy despite cooling investment volumes. The ninety-six point one percent occupancy rate is still strong by national standards. Flat rents and smaller deal sizes suggest the market is digesting prior years of elevated pricing rather than declining. The one hundred forty-four million dollar Carina construction loan signals that institutional lenders and developers still see Orange County multifamily as a viable, long-term growth story despite near-term headwinds.
The overarching theme is this: Orange County commercial real estate in April 2026 rewards patience, quality, and conviction. Capital is moving — but it is moving toward the right assets in the right locations. Executives and investors who chase last cycle’s pricing on secondary assets will find a difficult path. Those who align with the demographic and infrastructure trends shaping the county — density, transit adjacency, live-work-play environments, and logistics efficiency — are finding that the deals are there.
Closing
Orange County remains one of Southern California’s most durable commercial real estate markets, and the data from April 2026 reinforces that position.
From a seventy-five percent surge in retail investment sales to the groundbreaking of a two point five billion dollar mixed-use development and a major logistics lease in Fullerton, the market is generating real activity despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
The professionals and capital allocators who stay close to the data, build relationships before they need them, and move with precision when opportunity presents itself will define the next chapter of this market.
References
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CBRE Orange County Retail Figures Q1 2026: https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/orange-county-retail-figures-q1-2026
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CBRE Orange County Industrial Figures Q1 2026: https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/orange-county-industrial-figures-q1-2026
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CBRE Orange County Office Figures Q1 2026: https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/orange-county-office-figures-q1-2026
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CBRE Orange County Multifamily Figures Q1 2026: https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/orange-county-multifamily-figures-q1-2026
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Orange County Business Journal — Brokers Up 6.6% to 40 Billion Dollars: https://www.ocbj.com/finance/orange-county-commercial-brokers-up-6-6-to-40b-in-2025-sales-leases/
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Orange County Business Journal — Shopoff Bolsa Pacific Groundbreaking: https://www.ocbj.com/newsletter-feed/shopoff-demolishes-westminster-mall-sign-launches-bolsa-pacific/
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Orange County Business Journal — Bolsa Pacific Two Point Five Billion Dollar Redevelopment: https://www.ocbj.com/oc-homepage/shopoff-realty-investments-breaks-grounds-on-2-5b-bolsa-pacific-redevelopment-of-westminster-mall/
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Connect C R E — Shopoff and A O Break Ground on Westminster Mall: https://www.connectcre.com/stories/shopoff-ao-break-ground-of-mixed-use-redevelopment-of-westminster-mall/
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J L L Capital Markets — The Carina One Hundred Forty-Four Million Dollar Construction Loan: https://www.jll.com/en-us/newsroom/the-carina-in-santa-ana-secures-construction-financing
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Lee and Associates — Orange County Industrial Market Q1 2026: https://www.lee-associates.net/blog/orange-county-industrial-market-q1-2026-positive-signs-for-owners-occupiers
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Kidder Mathews — Orange County Office Market Report Q1 2026: https://kidder.com/market-reports/orange-county-office-market-report/
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Newmark — Orange County Office Market Overview Q1 2026: https://nmrk.imgix.net/uploads/fields/pdf-market-reports/1Q26-Orange-County-California-Office-Market.pdf
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Connect C R E — Columbia Container Lines Fullerton Lease: https://www.connectcre.com/stories/logistics-firm-signs-for-156k-sf-with-cim-group/
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Connect C R E — PIR Commercial Realty Launch: https://www.connectcre.com/stories/pir-commercial-realty-launches-with-focus-on-sophisticated-sponsors/
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J P Morgan — Tariffs and Trade Policy Impact on Commercial Real Estate: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/real-estate/commercial-real-estate/tariffs-and-trade-policys-impact-on-commercial-real-estate
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Voit Real Estate Services — Trade Policy Uncertainty and Southern California Industrial Markets: https://voitco.com/trade-policy-uncertainty-continues-to-impact-socal-industrial-markets/